You might think it prudent to wait for Cactus League results before issuing a Rockies prediction for 2009. Not me. Baseball's exhibition season may have more charm than the others, but it has no more predictive value.

First, a review:

Two years ago, I predicted the Rockies would win 85 games, which they had never done. Readers found my prediction amusing. So did editors, who slapped the following headline on it: This might come back to bite me.

As late as late August, it looked like it would, too. Then the Rocks had their September to remember and, just like that, I was proved . . . well . . . wrong. The correct number turned out to be 90 - 89 if you confined them to 162 games.

Last year, I predicted the Rockies would take a small step backward and win 88 games. Shortly thereafter, I was proved wrong again. The correct number turned out to be 74.

Never has a bandwagon emptied faster. Somehow, the Rockies' World Series run became a fluke and the Broncos' decade-long descent into mediocrity proof of their commitment to excellence.

This just in: Denver is a football town.

Nevertheless, for 2009, I am here to tell you - again - that the Rocks will win 85 games.

No, seriously.

And here's why:

For one thing, there's the offense. The Rocks finished sixth in the National League in batting and eighth in runs last season, with pretty much everybody having an off year. Assuming they don't all have two off years in a row, the bats will bounce back and restore an offense that finished first in batting and second in runs the year before.

If Clint Hurdle manages to get Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker 800 at-bats between them, the Rocks should be able to compensate in power for the loss of Matt Holliday.

Troy Tulowitzki hit eight home runs last year. A healthy Tulo exceeding that total this year is the safest bet this side of the over/under on the remaining life span of the Saturn (the car, not the planet).

I see triple-figure RBI for Brad Hawpe in the five hole and the biggest year yet from catcher Chris Iannetta, an emerging offensive force.

I see a bounce-back year for Garrett Atkins, but I'll feel more confident about that prediction when I see him driving the ball to right-center the way he used to.

I see Todd Helton's back as an ongoing issue, which means quite a lot of Atkins at first and Stewart at third.

I hope for - but, alas, do not see - an epiphany for Clint Hurdle in which he recognizes Baker as a plus offensive player at second base and converts Clint Barmes and his many intangibles into a Mark DeRosa-style supersub.

If the Rocks can get a minimum of 400 at-bats each from Tulowitzki, Atkins, Hawpe, Iannetta, Stewart and Baker, their offense should be fine.

My magic eight ball says to check back later on whether Ryan Spilborghs will prove durable enough to play a full season in center field. But with Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Scott Podsednik and even Dexter Fowler no more than a phone call away, I'm not worried about it.

I see Don Baylor adding substantial value as hitting coach, especially with runners in scoring position.

But the main reason I like the Rocks to climb back above .500 is pitching. This is always their main issue. When they pitch well, as they did in the second half of 2007, they can be scary good. When they don't, they're just scary.

I see Jason Hirsh or Franklin Morales establishing himself, giving the club a legitimate No. 3 starter behind Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez. I see Jason Marquis and Greg Smith filling out the rotation, only because I have absolutely no idea which Jorge De La Rosa we'll see this year.

I see two of those seven, along with Josh Fogg, Greg Reynolds and Brandon Hynick, providing a rotation of capable understudies in Colorado Springs.

I see Taylor Buchholz, Manny Corpas and Huston Street as a winning back end of the bullpen. I see Glendon Rusch, Jason Grilli and Alan Embree as capable middlemen. I see a starting staff that doesn't need as much early inning relief as last year's and a more-rested bullpen doing a better job when it does.

I don't see 85 winning the division because I expect the Dodgers to eventually sign Manny Ramirez. Nor do I see it winning the wild card, although it should make September interesting.

Granted, as my editors previously warned, this might come back to bite me. If the Rocks still can't pitch or hit in the clutch, I'll be wrong again.

But as they have proved during the past couple of years, those who ignore history are as likely to be right about the Rocks as those who rely on it.

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