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Despite rash of crashes, experts tout air safety

Published February 13, 2009 at 11:05 p.m.

Three commercial airline crashes in the United States in less than two months - the latest an accident Thursday night in Buffalo, N.Y., that killed 50 people.

It's enough to terrify anyone who plans to fly in the near future, sparking fears of a maintenance meltdown that will lead to a rash of accidents.

Throw in another crash in London on Friday - luckily, everyone survived - and the situation appears all the more dire.

But aviation experts say that flying is still safer than it's ever been, even though the cluster of recent accidents seems to say otherwise.

"At this point it doesn't appear that there are any similarities," said John Nance, an aviation safety consultant in Seattle. "I don't think you can draw any conclusions. I think it's just a coincidence. I see every reason to believe that we'll go another three or four years without another big crash."

The circumstances of the three crashes in the United States - a Continental Airlines flight in Denver last December, a US Airways flight that landed in the Hudson River in New York City last month and the Continental commuter crash in Buffalo Thursday - are unique.

The crash in Denver involved a plane that suddenly veered off the runway, while the US Airways jet hit a flock of geese.

Ice might have been to blame for the Buffalo crash. Officials trying to piece together what caused the accident said Friday the aircraft was new and had a clean safety record. The crew, however, had noticed ice buildup on the wings and windshield before the accident, based on preliminary information from the flight's cockpit voice and data recorders.

The twin turboprop aircraft - Continental Connection Flight 3407 from Newark, N.J. - was coming in for a landing when it crashed about five miles short of the Buffalo Niagara International Airport. The flight was operated by Colgan Air Inc., based in Manassas, Va., Colgan is owned by Pinnacle Airlines Corp.

Although the uniqueness of each crash could be a disturbing sign - pointing to a larger problem than, say, just one type of plane or part - several experts caution about jumping to conclusions.

The U.S. aviation industry has flown through a safe period since an American Airlines crash shortly after the 2001 terrorist attacks, and experts see that trend continuing.

The accidents are still under investigation and likely will be for a while, so the causes are unclear. But the fact that only one of the crashes involved fatalities is a positive sign.

"The statistics are still holding up as far as fatalities go," said Kevin Kuhl mann, professor of aviation and aerospace science at Metro State. "There are plenty of safety measures out there to prevent these kinds of accidents. It really doesn't calm people's fears, but the odds of being involved in a fatal accident on a commercial U.S. airline are like the odds of hitting the lottery."

walshc@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-2744. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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