Judy Curtis and her husband hoped to travel to Venice, Italy, this summer as a reward for paying off the mortgage on their Boulder home.

But after further investigation, the couple figured their money would go farther in their own country - even after flying to Alaska and taking a driving tour of the state.

That was before airfares and fees kept marching upward and gasoline prices climbed to $4 a gallon.

In the end, they settled on a far more modest option: a day in nearby Estes Park for the annual Scottish Festival.

"It feels like a good summer to have a . . . what are they calling it, a 'stay-cation?' " said Curtis, 61. "We're not feeling as rich as we did before."

Such downsizing tends to happen as travelers get closer to making plans. But economic trends and the rising cost of flying and driving could combine to hit the tourism sector with a whammy it hasn't experienced since the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

"It's inevitable, it (the economy) is going to have an impact," said Richard Scharf, president of the Denver Metro Convention & Visitors Bureau. "The only thing we can be assured of is it's going to impact every city and every state."

But some forecasters expect geographically isolated places such as Colorado to suffer more than others.

"I would include Colorado among the places that have become a large-scale tourist attraction because of the steady decline in airfares," said Anthony Townsend, research director with the Institute for the Future, a think tank based in Menlo Park, Calif.

Over the short term, Townsend sees tourism taking "a big hit, particularly for places that aren't really feasible for large numbers of people to get to in any other way."

A recent trend toward shorter, spontaneous plane trips could be challenged once travelers decide cost has become too big an obstacle, he said. Driving, on the other hand, despite the cost of gasoline, will still seem like a relatively affordable way to get here for those who live close enough.

On the upside: Many travelers now favor the "authentic" experiences and adventure vacations the state offers.

The big question for Townsend: whether the airline industry can "innovate its way out" of the fuel crisis, a process that will take far longer than the length of time it took for fuel costs to rise.

Already, data indicate fuel prices have pinched consumers and prompted them to cut back on travel.

Eons.com, a social networking site for baby boomers, said more than 60 percent of members responding to a survey have canceled, postponed or altered their summer travel plans because of rising gas prices.

Denver-based Mapquest released a survey this week showing that high gas prices have caused 66 percent of consumers to change vacation plans, and 34 percent to cancel their trips. Another 37 percent said they would take shorter trips and stay closer to home.

Hotels across the state have been spared.

The average occupancy rate of rooms has been down slightly this year, but that's only because the number of hotels has increased, according to a firm that closely tracks industry trends.

"It seems to us that people will always travel," said Jan Freitag, a vice president at Nashville, Tenn.-based Smith Travel Research. "People are always trying to get away from wherever they are, even though they may trade down in their choices" of lodging and food and how long they stay.

At the same time, hotels have managed to keep raising prices, and Freitag said his firm has been advising the industry not to cut rates "in a race to the bottom."

After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, 95 percent of the population continued to take trips even if they were nearby.

"Is what we're going through right now worse than 9/11?" Freitag asked. "We don't subscribe to that."

kelleyj@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5068