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Drop forecast for Denver commercial property sales

Published December 4, 2008 at 12:05 a.m.

Investors are expected to buy 44 percent less commercial real estate in the Denver area this year - the lowest tally since 2003, according to a study by Cushman & Wakefield brokers.

Commercial sales are expected to top $1.7 billion next year, well below the $4.1 billion sold in 2007.

Vacancy rates are rising for offices, industrial and retail properties, while rental rates are dropping. Denver-area apartment values have fallen because of credit restrictions from lenders, despite strong demand, lack of construction and stable employment.

Although Denver didn't experience the overbuilding many large cities did, the local market is hampered by little credit availability and global economic forces, top commercial real estate brokers from Cushman & Wakefield said Wednesday.

"Cycles are part of all businesses," Sherman Miller, executive managing director for Cushman & Wakefield.

"No one likes (down cycles)," Miller added. "But we will survive. They used to say, "Survive 2005 and things will be great in 2008. Now, it's survive 2009 and you will be in heaven in 2011."

Brokers in Cushman & Wakefield's Denver office Wednesday spent more than two hours speaking to the Rocky Mountain News on their various specialties.

"There is not a crisis in the fundamentals of real estate in Denver, but a credit market crisis," which is taking its toll on Denver and every market in the world, said Patrick Devereaux, of Cushman & Wakefield.

One bright spot for warehouses is the area near Interstate 70 and the E-470 toll road, said industrial broker Mitch Zatz. That stretch, which includes ProLogis Park 70, Majestic Commercenter, Gateway and other large industrial parks, has never seen more activity, as companies are changing the way they distribute goods in the Denver area.

In the past, firms would ship goods from giant warehouses in California, Indianapolis or Chicago to Denver, but when fuel prices hit record highs, companies decided it makes more sense to distribute them from smaller warehouses closer to their markets, he said.

Currently, there are six companies looking to lease about 1.2 million square feet in that area.

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