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Fantasy football: Week 14 stock watch
Published December 3, 2008 at 2:33 p.m.
Updated December 3, 2008 at 2:33 p.m.
Photo by Joe Mahoney
Broncos running back Peyton Hillis would be a good choice to insert into your fantasy lineup this week. He's a great matchup against Kansas City, which has surrendered 5.0 yards per carry and 20 rushing touchdowns this season.
As we enter Week 14, the playoffs have started in most fantasy leagues. That means it’s do or die -- one loss and you’re done. In that scenario, you should avoid being "cute" when you set your lineup. You're in the playoffs; play the guys who got you there. That said, not everybody who "got you there" is a good play (Marion Barber), whereas other guys who were on waivers most of the year have become reliable fantasy starters (Peyton Hillis, Domenik Hixon, Colts defense). Read on to see why the values of these players have changed.
Upgrades
Peyton Hillis, RB, Broncos:Hillis, a rookie seventh-round draft pick, came into training camp as a backup fullback. In fact, he wasn’t even a halfback his senior year at Arkansas, where he blocked for Felix Jones and Darren McFadden. Now, though, he’s the feature back on an explosive Broncos offense. If you’re hesitant about using Hillis in the fantasy playoffs, don’t be. This week, for example, Hillis has a great matchup against a Chiefs defense that has given up 5.0 yards per carry and 20 rushing touchdowns. Plus, having lost to the Chiefs in Kansas City earlier this year, the Broncos will be plenty motivated to return the favor this week in Denver, which will mean plenty of carries for Hillis as the Broncos play with the lead. Add it all up, and Hillis is a top 15 RB this week, maybe even top 10.
Domenik Hixon, WR, and Amani Toomer, WR, Giants: Now that Plaxico Burress has been suspended and won’t play again this season, it’s clear that both Giants WRs merit an upgrade. Toomer was the one to score last week; but of the two, I prefer Hixon, who is younger, faster, taller and more of a deep threat. If you’re skeptical about starting a guy you just claimed off waivers in the fantasy playoffs, consider that in the two games that Burress was inactive, Hixon had nine catches, 172 yards and a TD. I wouldn’t bench him for an elite option. But I’d play him this week over Ted Ginn, Justin Gage and DeSean Jackson, among others.
Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys: I upgraded Terrell Owens a couple of weeks ago, once Tony Romo showed he was healthy and playing well. Now that Witten has proven he’s healthy, too, it’s time to upgrade him as well. With Antonio Gates struggling, Tony Gonzalez is the only tight end I’d prefer over Witten for the rest of the year.
Colts D/ST: The Colts defense is not a juggernaut and is not as reliable as the Titans, Steelers, or Giants, among others. With home matchups against the Bengals and Lions the next two weeks, though, it won’t matter. The Colts showed last week that they are a viable fantasy defense in a good matchup, and the Bengals and Lions certainly qualify. Even if you already have an elite defense, I’d snatch the Colts off waivers as a, um, defensive play.
No change
LenDale White, RB, Titans: White was not a downgrade after his three-play performance against the Jets, and he’s not an upgrade after his explosion against the Lions. He is what he is -- a guy you play against bad teams and a guy you sit against good teams. This week the Browns qualify as bad. But forget about playing him against Pittsburgh should you survive to Week 16.
Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: The whole Colts offense was out of sorts last week. Especially since bad weather was a factor, consider it a fluke. The Colts play the Bengals and Lions at home the next two weeks, then go to Jacksonville. As far as matchups go, it doesn’t get any better than that. I know he’s disappointed you the last two weeks, but you’d really have to be stacked at running back to not start Addai in your fantasy playoffs.
Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals: Boldin looked terrible against the Eagles last week. Don’t worry, though -- it was an aberration. He was still targeted numerous times, including several goal-line looks, and will bounce back this week in a big way at home against the Rams.
Lee Evans, WR, Bills: A colleague emailed me earlier this week and asked me what I thought of Lee Evans fantasy value if J.P. Losman starts at QB. Here’s what I told him: "Losman is a good downfield passer. This is probably why Evans campaigned for Losman to be the QB last year, over Edwards, when there was still a QB controversy in Buffalo. Add it all up, and Evans' value is perhaps higher than it was with Edwards and certainly not lower. Evans has killed Miami over the years, so expect a good game, especially if Miami single-covers him as it did Moss a couple of weeks ago."
Downgrades
Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys: Barber is our "play your studs" exception. Not only is he hurt, but he faces three of the best run defenses in the league the next three weeks (at Pittsburgh, Giants, and Baltimore). This is a rare instance where I’d leave my stud on the bench and play the matchups (e.g. Chester Taylor against the Lions or Kevin Smith against a Vikings defense without Pat and Kevin Williams).
All Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are out for the year, leaving Ken Dorsey as the Browns starting QB. Though there are times when a third-string QB comes in and plays well, but this won’t be one of them. The whole Browns team is a mess right now. Romeo Crennel is not going to coach the Browns next year, and everyone knows it. Factor in that Dorsey just isn’t very good, and that the Browns have to play the Titans and Eagles in the next two weeks, and there is no way that you will see any Browns in any of my starting lineups in the fantasy playoffs; and that includes Braylon Edwards.
QBs and WRs facing the Raiders: Here are the stat lines of the last four quarterbacks who faced the Raiders: Jake Delhomme: 72 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs; Chad Pennington: 179 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs; Jay Cutler: 204 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT; Tyler Thigpen: 172 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. Do you want your fantasy QB to post stats like that? If not, then don’t play him against the Raiders. And that includes a struggling Philip Rivers on Thursday night.
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