With the second pick in the 2006 draft, the Colorado Rockies select . . .

Oops, wrong sport. Unlike the NFL and NBA drafts, the annual free-agent draft in baseball has no made-for-television fanfare, no commissioner at the podium emceeing the event. But the baseball draft, which is conducted via conference call, is momentous to the 30 major- league teams, a replenishing mechanism at best or an expensive washout at worst.

For the Rockies, the two-day draft that begins Tuesday will be historic. They will pick second, after never picking higher than seventh in 14 previous drafts.

History suggests the Rockies will pick a future major leaguer, which, in and of itself, means little. In 41 previous drafts, the second overall pick made it to the majors 36 times. But pitcher Adam Johnson, taken second by Minnesota in 2000, pitched nine games for the Twins over two seasons before they released him in January 2005.

And pitchers Les Rohr, taken second in the 1965 draft by the New York Mets, and Jay Franklin (1971, San Diego) combined to pitch nine games in the majors.

Teams draft in reverse order of their record the previous season. They did so for the first time last year without regard to league. The Kansas City Royals (56-106 in 2005) draft first this year, followed by the Rockies (67-95 last season) with the second pick.

"It's just really a snapshot in time when you select," Rockies scouting director Bill Schmidt said. "In a perfect world, and it's different because of a whole lot of other factors, you would hope you're getting the second-best player at (No.) 2 (overall)."

That second pick in the draft will receive the largest signing bonus in Rockies history. That record is $2.75 million, given to pitcher Jason Young, a second- round pick in 2000, after pitcher Matt Harrington, taken in the first round, did not sign. Young, claimed off waivers by Cleveland in August, went 0-3 with a 9.71 earned-run average in 10 games over two seasons with the Rockies.

Despite the Harrington fiasco and Young's struggles, that 2000 draft produced players for the Rockies. Third baseman Garrett Atkins was taken in the fifth round that year, followed by pitcher Scott Dohmann (sixth round), shortstop Clint Barmes (10th round) and outfielder Brad Hawpe (11th round).

'Cash' Gordon

Last year, the second pick in the draft was Alex Gordon, a third baseman from the University of Nebraska chosen by the Kansas City Royals. He didn't sign in time to play in 2005, but the $4 million signing bonus he received gave the Rockies a financial alert of what looms. Gordon's bonus was an increase from the $3.15 million Detroit gave pitcher Justin Verlander, the second pick in 2004.

The depth of the draft, of course, varies annually. So in a good year, it's possible to get as good a player with, say, the fifth overall pick as the second. But the bonuses appear to be rising faster for the second player chosen in the draft than for the fifth.

Gordon's bonus was $1.55 million greater than what Milwaukee gave to third baseman Ryan Braun, the fifth overall pick. In 1999, there was a difference of $875,000 in the bonuses of second pick Josh Beckett ($3.625 million from Florida) and fifth pick B.J. Garbe ($2.75 million from Minnesota). The difference in those slots grew to $2.1 million in 2002 between B.J. Upton ($4.6 million from Tampa Bay) and Clint Everts ($2.5 million from Montreal).

That difference between the second and fifth picks narrowed to $1.5 million in 2003 - $3.6 million to Rickie Weeks (Milwaukee) and $2.1 million to Chris Lubanski (Kansas City) - and $950,000 in 2004 - Verlander's $3.15 million vs. $2.2 million to Mark Rogers (Milwaukee) - before Gordon's deal widened the gap last year.

Finances aside, the performance of the player taken second in the draft is what will matter most to the Rockies. By far, the most notable second overall pick was Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson in 1966, the second year of the amateur draft. The Kansas City Athletics chose Jackson, an outfielder at Arizona State, after the Mets opted for Steve Chilcott, a high school catcher, who batted .248 over seven seasons in the minors and peaked at Class AAA.

Jackson is the only Hall of Famer to be chosen second overall in the draft. But other notable players picked in that spot include J.R. Richard, Rick Manning, Bill Gullickson, Joe Carter, Lloyd Moseby, Will Clark, Bill Swift, J.D. Drew, Mark Prior, Mark Mulder and Beckett.

The second overall pick includes one notable local connection. Denver native John Stearns, who went to the University of Colorado, was drafted second by Philadelphia in 1973. He was a four- time All-Star as a catcher with the Mets and played all but one of his 810 games for them.

Winning number?

To be sure, a host of ordinary, or less, major leaguers were picked second overall. The Rockies won't be clicking their heels years from now if they end up with someone comparable to Tommy Boggs, Mark Lewis, Tyler Houston, Kurt Stillwell, Ben Grieve, Ben Davis, Darren

Dreifort, Mike Kelly or Travis Lee, all of whom were second picks.

In an attempt to get some gauge on this particular spot in the draft, the Rocky Mountain News also examined the first, third, fourth and fifth overall selections.

Three Hall of Famers show up. With the third overall pick in 1973, Milwaukee selected Robin Yount, and Dave Winfield was taken fourth that year by San Diego. Milwaukee chose Paul Molitor third overall in 1977.

Ken Griffey Jr. (1987) and Alex Rodriguez (1993), probable Hall of Famers, were first picks overall, both taken by Seattle. Chipper Jones and Barry Larkin could end up in the Hall of Fame. Atlanta took Jones first in the 1990 draft and Larkin was selected fourth overall by Cincinnati in 1985.

The draft is by no means potluck, not with all the money and man-hours devoted to it. But it falls well short of science because it's so unpredictable.

For example, from the 2000 draft, only two first-round picks have made much of an impact in the majors. Outfielder Rocco Baldelli received a $2.25 million bonus after being taken sixth by Tampa Bay. And second baseman Chase Utley, selected 15th overall by Philadelphia, received a $1.78 million bonus.

Hits and misses

It's a long fall from Joe Carter to Augie Schmidt, a shortstop who topped out in Class AAA after being taken second overall by Toronto in 1982. Picking second guarantees the Rockies nothing. But what's the history of the second pick vis-à-vis the top five overall selections since the inception of the draft in 1965?

For purposes of that analysis, it's not really fair to go beyond the 2001 draft. The assumption being that anyone drafted later, particularly a player out of high school, still could be working his way up to the majors.

In the 37 drafts from 1965 to 2001, there have been 34 players taken first overall who have reached the majors, 33 players taken second overall, 31 taken third, 29 taken fourth and 23 taken fifth.

Those are broad brush strokes, to be sure, but the pattern is as expected. Better players, those more likely to reach the majors, should be taken toward the top of the first round.

But getting to the big leagues, staying there and making an impact are entirely different matters. Looking further at the number of position players taken first through fifth overall, how many played 1,000 games in the big leagues? In this case, the cutoff point was after the 1997 draft, because players drafted later would have a hard time accruing 1,000 games in the majors by now. Nonetheless, the likes of Pat Burrell (first pick in 1998), Vernon Wells (fifth pick in 1997) and Mark Teixeira (fifth pick in 2001), all impact players, get omitted because they haven't played in 1,000 games in the big leagues.

Using 1,000 games as a standard, the results from the 1965-1997 drafts are:

• Fifteen of the 22 position players (68 percent) who were drafted first overall and reached the majors played in 1,000 games.

• Seven of 16 position players (44 percent) picked second in the draft played in at least 1,000 games in the majors.

• Nine of 14 position players (64 percent) taken third overall played in 1,000 games in the majors.

• Seven of 12 position players (58 percent) picked fourth in the draft played 1,000 games in the majors.

• Two of nine position players (22 percent) selected fifth overall played 1,000 games in the majors.

For pitchers, games are a less meaningful measure, because relievers will appear in far more than starters. Save totals don't take into account relievers who have done well in setup roles. And focusing on victories results in a bias toward pitchers who played with good teams.

So, taking a big-screen look at pitchers who reached the majors and were drafted first through fifth overall reveals:

• Dwight Gooden (1982) and Jack McDowell (1987) were taken fifth. So were Jeff Granger (1993) and Ariel Prieto (1995).

• Jon Matlack (1967), Kevin Brown (1986), Gregg Olson (1988), Alex Fernandez (1990) and Kerry Wood (1995) were drafted fourth overall. But so were Mike Harkey (1987), Billy Koch (1996), Jason Grilli (1997) and Jeff Austin (1998).

• Joe Coleman (1965), Ken Dayley (1980), Bobby Witt (1985), Dustin Hermanson (1994) and Braden Looper (1996) were third overall picks. But so were Jimmy Jones (1982), Drew Hall (1984), Willie Banks (1987) and Roger Salkeld (1989).

• Richard (1969), Gullickson (1977), Swift (1984), Mulder (1998), Beckett (1999) and Prior (2001) were second picks in the draft. But so were Denver native Steve Dunning (1970), who went right from Stanford to the big leagues, Boggs (1974), Pat Underwood (1976) and Dreifort (1993).

• Floyd Bannister (1976), Mike Moore (1981) and Andy Benes (1988) were chosen first overall. But so were David Clyde (1973), Ben McDonald (1989) and Matt Anderson (1997), who spent a month with the Rockies last year when they used a club-record 19 rookies.

The Rockies did see improvement from their young players last year, and their farm system grew stronger. But their record equaled the worst in franchise history and put them in position to draft second. It's an opportunity, obviously one they hope to capitalize on and not repeat.

"The reality is, we are picking where we're picking," Schmidt said. "It's our job as a staff to bring talent into the system. I think you just got to deal with what you got and not worry about it, because there'll be a time, and I believe strongly it's not too far along, we're going to be picking a lot lower."

A little draft history

• 1965: First amateur draft is staged, in June; a January phase was added, along with a late- summer selection of American Legion players (dropped after 1966).

• 1986: All foreign players attending U.S. high schools or colleges become eligible. Later amended to make players from Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories, previously eligible to sign as free agents at age 17, draft eligible after their high school class graduated. Canadians were added in 1991 and Cuban defectors living in the U.S. in 1993.

• 1987: January phase of the draft was eliminated, along with the secondary phase that was staged for previously drafted but unsigned players.

• 1998: 50-round limit is introduced to the renamed First-Year Player Draft.

Second helping

Picking second overall will put the Rockies in uncharted territory in the amateur draft. Players taken second in the draft since its 1965 inception, and how far they ascended:

Year Player Pos Team Highest level (games)

1965 Les Rohr LHP Mets Majors (6)

1966 Reggie Jackson OF Athletics Majors (2,820)

1967 Terry Hughes SS Cubs Majors (54)

1968 Pete Broberg* RHP Athletics Majors (206)

1969 J.R. Richard RHP Astros Majors (238)

1970 Steve Dunning RHP Indians Majors (136)

1971 Jay Franklin RHP Padres Majors (3)

1972 Rick Manning SS Indians Majors (1,555)

1973 John Stearns OF Phillies Majors (810)

1974 Tommy Boggs RHP Rangers Majors (114)

1975 Mike Lentz LHP Padres Class AA

1976 Pat Underwood LHP Tigers Majors (113)

1977 Bill Gullickson RHP Expos Majors (398)

1978 Lloyd Moseby 1B Blue Jays Majors (1,588)

1979 Tim Leary RHP Mets Majors (292)

1980 Garry Harris SS Blue Jays Class AA

1981 Joe Carter OF Cubs Majors (2,189)

1982 Augie Schmidt SS Blue Jays Class AAA

1983 Kurt Stillwell SS Reds Majors (998)

1984 Bill Swift RHP Mariners Majors (403)

1985 Will Clark 1B Giants Majors (1,976)

1986 Greg Swindell LHP Indians Majors (664)

1987 Mark Merchant OF Pirates Class AAA

1988 Mark Lewis SS Indians Majors (902)

1989 Tyler Houston C Braves Majors (700)

1990 Tony Clark OF Tigers Majors (1,265)

1991 Mike Kelly OF Braves Majors (327)

1992 Paul Shuey RHP Indians Majors (451)

1993 Darren Dreifort RHP Dodgers Majors (274)

1994 Ben Grieve OF Athletics Majors (976)

1995 Ben Davis C Padres Majors (486)

1996 Travis Lee** 1B Twins Majors (1,038)

1997 J.D. Drew OF Phillies Majors (864)

1998 Mark Mulder LHP Athletics Majors (194)

1999 Josh Beckett RHP Marlins Majors (117)

2000 Adam Johnson RHP Twins Majors (9)

2001 Mark Prior RHP Cubs Majors (97)

2002 B.J. Upton SS Devil Rays Majors (45)

2003 Rickie Weeks 2B Brewers Majors (155)

2004 Justin Verlander RHP Tigers Majors (13)

2005 Alex Gordon 3B Royals Began pro career in 2006

* Did not sign - attended Dartmouth and signed with Washington in 1971.

** Signed as free agent with Arizona.

etkinj@RockyMountainNews.com

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