What are the odds of hitting it big in the book business?

After watching hundreds of books come and go each week - most that will never get publicity of any kind - I would say this: Honey, if you're looking for riches, buy a lottery scratch ticket instead. At least you'll have fun scraping that metallic stuff off the ticket with your dime - and you'll still have the coin when you're done.

But don't take my bleak analysis as mathematical fact. Heck, I can barely balance my checkbook.

Instead, I'd suggest you ask my new friend Greg Slominski.

I met Slominski at the recent book convention in New York. He was there researching the best way to market his new novel, Princess and the Bean, and had come to a conclusion all wannabe authors should heed: "I think what's really clear," he said, "is that writing the book is the easy part." Selling it is another story altogether.

And he went on to prove it. The engineer from Virginia recently e-mailed me some numbers he had crunched - and while even Slominski would admit they're highly speculative, they're still fun to consider.

Slominski bases his calculations on two numbers:

• 195,000 - the number of books published in 2004 (including self-published titles), as reported by industry researcher R.R. Bowker .

• 5 percent - the percentage of "successful" authors, defined as those who make a living on their books alone. Slominski found that figure on the Web site of Rick Frishman, respected media consultant and co-author of Guerilla Marketing for Writers and Guerilla Publicity.

To be honest, Frishman laughed when I asked him where that figure came from. He couldn't remember. "We don't call this the absolute Bible here," he says of the information on his Web site. "It's more just to get people thinking."

But Frishman, who's logged nearly 30 years in the book-promotion business, often has heard that figure bandied about, and he thinks 5 percent might even be too high. So we'll err on the side of optimism and let Slominski's basic assumption stand.

Slominski then makes a few other logical leaps of faith. He assumes that a person's career lasts 20 years, that the pool of successful authors neither expands nor contracts (a reasonable, and even optimistic, assumption, given that the number of books bought each year is either flat or declining, based on which study you read) and so on.

So - drum roll - what are the odds of living off your prose?

According to Slominski: 1 in 380.

Or, if you tweak the numbers to allow for a range of error, 1 in 200 to 1 in 500.

You've gotta admit those aren't exactly encouraging. "Would a pharmacist go to school if the odds were less than 1 in 100 they would get a job when they get out?" Slominski writes.

He notes that writers have it worse than Division 1 college football players vying for slots in the pros, and "way worse than (the odds) Miss America contestants face. And they get to flaunt cleavage."

He has those calculations, too - but don't ask me to double-check his work.

Bottom line: Whatever the odds, Slominski isn't shoving his manuscript in the back of some drawer and slinking away in defeat.

"Here's how I figure it, we're all born stark raving naked. Some of us don't advance much past that, but look at the fun we have and the STORIES we tell. That's why we don't give up. Charge!"

Which leads me to my own mathematical conclusion: Go figure.

While we're on the subject of gambling on the book business, it seems the perfect time to update a column I wrote in February, the tale of a wannabe author who came tantalizingly close to beating the odds, only to have her dreams go horribly wrong - much like the monthly calculations in my checkbook.

Jerramy Fine, 28, is an Anglophile who grew up in Montrose. Eventually she moved to her dream country, England, and landed a job working for Guinness World Records.

This wasn't just any job. It was a job to die for. Fine was the person who verified all the crazy records being made - things like the world's largest G-string or the longest time spent duct- taped to a wall.

In other words, it was unbelievably great material for a book.

Prompted by friends, Fine wrote three draft chapters and a brief outline - and almost immediately won the promise of a six-figure contract from HarperCollins. Then, before she could say World's Worst Nightmare, it all fell apart.

She found herself embroiled in a nasty lawsuit with Guinness, which fired her for "gross misconduct," citing breach of confidentiality. In the face of a potential copyright problem, HarperCollins withdrew its offer for the book.

Suddenly, Fine had no book, no job and possibly no way to stay in the country she loved.

Now that's a development that could drive a woman to drink - and you can bet that drink won't be Guinness.

But like Slominski, she's a fighter, and while she may have been down, don't count her out.

Fine recently informed me that the lawsuit has been settled. Though she can't reveal the terms, she notes that she has a new work permit that will allow her to stay in England, a new job as a copywriter for newsletters distributed online and two new ideas for books that hopefully won't spark the ire of a bevy of bloodsucking corporate lawyers.

Let's just say, they have nothing to do with the world's longest ear hair or most beer kegs balanced on a head.

Fine sounds a bit discouraged about the ways of the business world, and worried that she'll never again land such a great book deal. But like Slominski, she's willing to keep trying.

"I've decided to put that experience behind me and hope that lightning can strike twice."

What are the odds of that?

I can almost hear Slominski warming up his calculator as we speak. The little math showoff.

Patti Thorn is the books editor. thornp@RockyMountainNews.com or 303- 892-5419

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